The following forecast is provided by Rosine Anwobor as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under my supervision. The forecast discussion is mine……

A broad surface high pressure system nosing into the area from our south resulted in clearing skies and milder temperatures today. As this system shifts to our east overnight and during the day Tuesday, southwesterly flow around the backside of the high (clockwise flow around highs) will push a warm front through our region late tonight and tomorrow morning. This warm front is extending well east from a deepening surface low pressure system moving northward through the Great Lakes. There is not much lift associated with the front in our region so we will probably see nothing more than some cloudiness or a brief sprinkle or shower at most as it passes through. Once it passes, the sun should return for Tuesday afternoon and temperatures will soar well into the 60s.  As the low passes well to our north on Wednesday it will drag its weakening cold front across Berkshire County. The front will take most of the day to pass through so Wednesday will be fairly cloudy. However, the front will be weak and the air it will be lifting will be fairly dry. Therefore, there is only a chance of a shower on Wednesday, predominantly in the morning, but there could be a lingering shower in South County during the early afternoon. Showers should be scattered and light so I do not expect the day to be a wash out by any means.

The cold frontal passage on Wednesday will herald a progressively colder regime from Thursday through the weekend. The front will be at the leading edge of a broad trough in the jet stream wave pattern that will settle south over the Great Lakes and Northeast on Thursday and Friday. The cooler air within the trough settling over us will result in high temperatures generally between 45 and 50 degrees both days. Weak surface high pressure will permit some sun to shine on Thursday. However, beyond that things get very interesting, and complex (of course).  A vigorous mid/upper level disturbance (cold pool) will dive south out of Canada into the base of the trough on Friday. This will cause the trough to become quite “amplified”, to the point that it becomes “negatively tilted” on Saturday. This will result in a rapidly deepening surface low pressure system off the New England coast on Saturday. It will definitely be cold enough for snow Friday night through Saturday night as the storm develops and moves very slowly northeastward. The big question mark is how much precipitation we will get. I think it is unlikely that we will get a significant snow storm. Usually, with these types of systems, they are too far off the coast by the time they deepen sufficiently. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a slushy inch or two. I will update this again on Wednesday and Friday (Thursday as well if necessary). In any case, one thing seems fairly certain, it will be COLD this weekend.

Monday Night

Mostly clear to partly cloudy this evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. There is a chance of a shower toward daybreak, predominantly in North County. Probability of precipitation 30%. Any rainfall totals 0.05″ or less.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Calm winds.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower early, then clearing skies through the morning. Sunshine through a veil of high thin clouds in the afternoon and unseasonably mild.

High temperatures in the mid 60s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid to upper 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 60s over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear in the evening, increasing clouds after midnight. Unseasonably mild.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy and mild. Turning cooler late. A few scattered showers, predominantly light, are likely in the morning. A lingering shower is possible in South County into the early afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less.

High temperatures in the low 60s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge; near 60 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 60 over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will fall through the 50s, from north to south, during the afternoon.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to west-northwesterly during the afternoon.