Student forecasts as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) begin today. The following forecast is provided by Tammy (T-Rex) Alexander under my supervision. Students do not have enough knowledge or training at this point in an introductory course to make forecasts on their own. However, this is a useful teaching tool for students to see and understand what is involved with making a weather forecast. The following forecast discussion is mine……

A fairly weak surface low pressure presently located off the coast of New Jersey will move very slowly east-northeastward over the next few days, passing just southeast of Cape Cod Thursday evening and then into the Canadian Maritime region by Friday evening. Bands of rain rotating around the low in a counterclockwise manner (flow around low pressure in the Northern Hemisphere is counterclockwise) will rotate back over our region tonight. There may even be a few embedded heavier bands, particularly between about 10 pm and 2 am. Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.50″ to 0.75″ range overnight, possibly up to 0.75″ to 1.00″ in the elevated terrain to the east. However, showers will taper off during the morning tomorrow, and most of the significant rain should be over, with only light scattered showers possible by late morning on Thursday, becoming even less likely Thursday night, as the low drifts away and weakens. We should remain overcast through Friday. With the overcast in place and a north-northeasterly wind flow, it will remain cool with little change in temperatures over the next 36 hours, with temperatures remaining in the 40s in most locations, both day and night. On Friday, temperatures may finally make it up over the 50 degree mark.

Saturday we will have a bit of a break from the dreary weather as weak surface high pressure builds in briefly. Skies should be partly cloudy and temperatures will likely approach, and even exceed, 60 degrees. Clouds will be on the increase later in the day, however, as a vigorous disturbance drops southeastward over the Great Lakes toward our region. This mid/upper-level disturbance will “dig” a broad trough in the jet stream wave pattern as it rotates through Saturday night and Sunday so we will likely see a significant drop-off in temperatures Saturday night and Sunday as the trough “drops” over the Northeast. Scattered showers will also likely accompany this disturbance, particularly Saturday night, although the precipitation should be fairly light. It will be cold enough aloft to support snowfall so, even though it will be warm enough below the clouds to melt the snow before it reaches the ground in most places, the higher elevations could potentially see their first snowflakes.

The broad trough will lift out quickly and a ridge will build in with an accompanying surface high pressure system for early to mid week next week. Therefore, it will likely be relatively fair with moderating temperatures for the first half of next week, before the next trough, and its accompanying cold front approach mid-week.

Wednesday Night

Overcast and cool with showers developing this evening and continuing, off and on overnight. Rain may be fairly heavy at times, particularly between about 1o pm and 2 am. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals around 0.50″ to 0.75″. Rainfall totals may be higher over the elevated terrain to the east.

Temperatures will only drop a few degrees with low temperatures generally in the mid 40s with a few upper 40s in South County and low 40s over the elevated terrain.

North-northeasterly winds at 5-15 mph this evening, shifting to northerly overnight.

Thursday

Overcast and cool with showers likely early, tapering off by late morning, with just the chance of scattered, mostly light, showers during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70% in the morning, decreasing to 40% in the afternoon. Likely additional rainfall totals generally 0.10″ or less.

Temperatures holding fairly steady, with high temperatures upper 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 50 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 40s over the elevated terrain.

Northerly winds at 5-15 mph, shifting to northwesterly late.

Thursday Night

Overcast and cool with the chance a few scattered rain showers, mostly light, predominantly during the evening. Probability of precipitation 30%.

Low temperatures in the low 40s.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday

Mostly cloudy and slightly milder. There is still the slight chance of a light shower or sprinkle.

High temperatures in the low 50s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 50 over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.