It continues to look like we will be right on the northern edge of the rain shield tomorrow. In addition, the rain shield will tend to “break up” and evaporate as the disturbance bumps into the dry and sinking air of the broad surface high pressure system presently centered over New England. The computer models have been trending toward the high pressure system “holding” the system at bay to our south and more effectively breaking apart the precipitation then it appeared yesterday so I have decreased the precipitation probabilities from yesterday. It looks less like a “rainy day” tomorrow and more of a mostly cloudy day with just the chance of a little light rain or a few showers, with the increasing likelihood of showers the further south and east one goes within the county. It is even possible that we may see some sunshine in the afternoon tomorrow as the surface low begins to dissipate and drift southeastward over the course of the day. Some of the high resolution models are still bringing the steady rain into the county, so this is still a possibility, but I think this is much less likely than the scenario I just mentioned. If we don’t get steady rain, temperatures will also not be quite as cool as it appeared yesterday. 

Once the surface low moves away, warm and sunny surface high pressure will re-establish itself across the region and we should see mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s Friday through Sunday.

Wednesday Night

Increasing clouds this evening. Becoming mostly cloudy after midnight.

Low temperatures in the upper 40s.

Light easterly winds.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with just a chance of light rain or rain showers. Probability of precipitation 20% in North County, 30% in central Berkshire and 40% in South County. Any rainfall totals likely 0.10″ or less.

High temperatures in the low 60s in most locations, near 60 over the elevated terrain.

Northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a lingering shower in the evening, then decreasing cloudiness after midnight.

Low temperatures in the mid 40s.

Light north-northeasterly winds.

Friday

Mostly sunny and warmer.

High temperatures in the low 70s in Pittsfield; low to mid 70s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 70s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 70 to low 70s over the elevated terrain.

North-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.