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Summary: A weak surface low pressure system, presently located off the Carolina Coast, will deepen rapidly as it moves northeast to the east of Cape over the next 24 hours. Fortunately for us, the low center will be well off the coast and we will not see anything more than scattered snow showers and snow flurries. However, the low will be so deep that the pressure gradient will be very strong over Berkshire County tomorrow so it will likely be quite windy and unseasonably cold.

The jet stream pattern with this storm will have a classic “double jet streak” configuration that will create pronounced upper-level divergence, permitting the surface low to deepen very rapidly. In fact, if the models are correct, the central pressure will drop below 960 mb. This is similar to the central pressure in a Category 3 hurricane. This pressure level is also similar to Sandy, as well as the “Superstorm” that wreaked havoc on the eastern third of the U.S. in mid-March 1993, dropping 1-3 feet of snow as far south as Alabama. Luckily for the East Coast, the jet stream trough that is responsible for generating this storm is located further east than those prior events. As a result, the low will track well offshore and carry most of its heavy snow with it. Cape Cod and eastern Maine have blizzard warnings in effect, however, due to a period of heavy snow tomorrow with near hurricane force wind gusts and reduced visibility due to falling and blowing snow. Coastal flood advisories are also in effect there due to an expected storm surge of 3-4 feet (although not even close to the scale of Sandy).

As the storm moves away skies should clear Wednesday night with very cold temperatures (once again). However, the jet stream trough will lift rapidly northeast and a bit of a ridge will build in so there should be a fairly rapid “warming” trend Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures in the 30s Thursday and well into the 40s on Friday. Two low pressure systems will slide by to our north, one on Friday and a second on Saturday night. Precipitation may start as a little light mixed sleet and freezing rain Thursday night with some low-level cold air in place but the precipitation should change fairly quickly to rain Friday morning. Rain should be light on Friday but a bit heavier from late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Tuesday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy.

Not as cold as previous nights, with low temperatures in the upper teens.

Light easterly winds, shifting to northerly and increasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy windy and cold with a chance of a snow shower in the morning. Clearing windy and cold during the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain, with wind chill temperatures in the single digits.

Northwest winds at 10-20 mph during the morning, increasing to 15-25 mph, with gusts to 40 mph during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear and unseasonably cold. It will be windy in the evening, with winds diminishing somewhat after midnight.

Low temperatures near 10, with wind chills near zero.

Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph during the evening, shifting to westerly and diminishing to 8-15 mph after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly sunny in the morning with an increase in clouds during the afternoon. Not as cold.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain

Westerly winds at 8-12 mph, shifting to southwesterly in the afternoon.