Berkshire County Forecast-Tuesday, March 11

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: It looks like the surface low may track slightly farther south than it appeared yesterday, tracking closer to New York city. However, it does not appear that this will affect the forecast for Berkshire County dramatically. The only changes to yesterday’s forecast that I would make is that 1) I think that we may get more rain, and it may be moderate to heavy at times, during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Also, 2) surface temperatures will be close to freezing in spots over the elevated terrain, particularly to the north, so there may be some freezing rain there. However, with temperatures close to freezing and the high sun angle during the day, I would not expect a significant ice accumulation during the day. In addition, 3) as the dense cold air wraps in behind the low over the course of Wednesday evening there will likely be a changeover to freezing rain and sleet progressing from north to south. The changeover to freezing rain will likely occur by 8 or 9 pm in North County and central Berkshire, by 10 pm in South County. It will likely have changed to sleet everywhere by 11 pm. There should only be a light coating of ice and a thin (1/4″-1/2″) layer of sleet before precipitation changes to snow by midnight in central and northern parts of the county with the changeover from sleet to snow closer to 1 or 2 am in South County. There may be a burst of heavier snow at the outset, otherwise the snow should generally be light and continue into mid-morning on Thursday. Snow showers will likely linger into the afternoon on Thursday. I still expect 1-3″ snow accumulation by the time it ends, with the lower amounts more likely in South County and the higher amounts in North County and over the elevated terrain to the east. There could be as much as 4″ in a few spots over the elevated terrain in North County (e.g. Savoy, Florida).

Tuesday Night

Increasing clouds this evening. Becoming overcast after midnight with mixed snow and rain showers likely in North County and rain showers elsewhere toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely snow accumulation, a dusting to 1/2″ in parts of North County by the time any snow showers end around 10 am.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s, low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Calm winds.

Wednesday

Any mixed rain and snow showers early, predominantly to the north, should end by 10 am. Rain will then re-develop across the county near noon to early afternoon and continue moderate to heavy at times through the afternoon and into the evening. There may be some pockets of freezing rain over the elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals 0.50″-0.75″ by the time rain transitions to frozen precipitation during the evening hours. No significant ice accumulation expected during the daylight hours.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 30s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to northeasterly at 10-15 mph during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Rain, moderate to heavy at times, early in the evening. Rain will likely change to freezing rain and then sleet, with the changeover progressing from northwest to southeast across the county, during the evening. In central and northern Berkshire the changeover to freezing rain will likely occur by 8 or 9 pm and by 10 pm in South County. There should be sleet everywhere by 11 pm. Sleet will likely change to snow by midnight in central and northern sections, by 1 or 2 am in South County. A thin coating of ice is possible in spots (< 0.10″) with a thin layer of sleet (0.25″-0.50″) before the changeover to snow. Occasional snow, mostly light, will likely continue into mid-morning. Likely total snow accumulations 1″-3″ with the least amounts most likely in South County and the greater amounts to the north and over the elevated terrain to the east. There could be as much as 4″ over the elevated terrain to the north (e.g. Savor, Florida). Becoming windy and much colder as the night progresses.

Temperatures will plummet into and through the 20s during the evening and then through the teens after midnight, with low temperatures in the single digits by morning. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero at times.

North-northeasterly winds at 10-20 mph in the evening, shifting to northwesterly at 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph after midnight.

Thursday

Light snow likely until mid-morning with scattered snow showers lingering into the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely total snow accumulations as stated above (in the Wednesday night forecast). It will be windy and bitterly cold.

Temperatures will not rise much, only reaching the low teens in most locations, near 10 over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures will be in the single digits below zero at times.

Northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.