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Summary: We are likely to get a light coating of snow tomorrow and again on Saturday as we are brushed by weak coastal surface low pressure systems forming along the eastern edge of the trough in the jet stream wave pattern that is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S.. We also will likely get some snow showers/squalls late Sunday or Sunday night as we are brushed by an arctic cold front diving down into the trough. Each of these three events have the potential to leave a dusting to 1″ or so of snow accumulation, although some areas may see little or no snow.

Temperatures will gradually decline through the weekend and next week as the trough essentially becomes a “standing wave” as a series of disturbances in the jet stream flow rotating through the base of the trough act to deepen and re-establish the trough in place. This standing wave pattern is becoming bad news for the western U.S. as, with a trough over the eastern U.S., the other half of the wave is a ridge over the western U.S.. This means the storm track, which follows the jet stream, is way to the north over western Canada. California, including the Sierra Nevada mountains from which snow melt provides much of the drinking water for the northern half of the state, has gotten very little precipitation. With this standing wave remaining in place, which long-range models suggest will be the case for the next few weeks, the drought in California looks to continue. Since their rainy season usually ends by March, they are running out of time to build up the reservoirs before 7 months of dryness (April-October) sets in.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with the chance of snow flurries or wet snow showers. Any snow showers will likely be mixed with rain during the evening in the lower elevations. Probability of precipitation 40%. There may be a dusting of snow in a few locations.

Low temperatures generally in the upper 20s, mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light southerly winds in the evening, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 5-10 mph by midnight.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers and flurries likely. There may even be a period of light snow during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely snowfall accumulations a dusting to 0.5″. There could be up to an inch in a few spots over the elevated terrain.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy and a little colder.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain.

Winds light and variable to calm.

Friday

Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a snow shower or flurry late. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation expected.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.