Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: It looks like the weak storm passing by to our northwest this weekend will not make much of an impact in Berkshire County. The warm front should pass through dry on Saturday. There should be nothing more than some drizzle after midnight on Saturday due to a low overcast and some fog. However, those in the elevated terrain may see a few pockets of freezing drizzle. As the trailing cold front moves through on Sunday there is just the chance of a few scattered, light rain showers. It will also be quite mild this weekend compared to recent weeks.

It still appears that once the cold front stalls and becomes stationary to our south, a surface low  pressure system tracking along the front will pass by to our south on Monday but it may be a close call so I will keep an eye on that over the weekend. A more potent storm will likely impact us Tuesday night and Wednesday. Right now it looks like accumulating snow late Tuesday night, with as much as 6-8″ by morning, with a changeover to sleet and freezing rain during Wednesday morning as the storm moves out. However, my experience with these types of storms is that the changeover to sleet and freezing rain frequently occurs sooner than the models indicate this far out so it is likely that we will get less snowfall than that. Also, the jet stream pattern will not be particularly amplified so it looks like the storm will move through quickly and that this event may last 12 hours or less. However, it looks like Wednesday morning may be a tough commute.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy and relatively mild.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Winds light and variable, becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday

Mixed clouds and sun early, becoming mostly cloudy by late morning. Mild.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain.

South-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with patchy fog developing. There is a chance of spotty drizzle after midnight. There may be a few pockets of freezing drizzle over the elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 30%. Precipitation totals  less than 0.05″.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees before midnight with temperatures falling to the low 30s in most locations, mid 30s in South County and upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will then likely rise slowly after midnight, reaching the mid 30s in most locations, mid to upper 30s in South County and low 30s over the elevated terrain by morning.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph, shifting to southwesterly after midnight.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy and mild with the chance of a rain shower. Becoming breezy and cooler in the afternoon. Showers should be mostly light with rainfall totals generally 0.10″ or less. Probability of precipitation 40%.

High temperatures near 40 in Pittsfield; near 40 to low 40s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to west-northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The standing wave jet stream trough which has kept us in the deep freeze for the last few weeks is finally starting to flatten out as the jet stream becomes more zonally oriented. As a result, our temperatures will be more moderate for the next several days. As a trade off, skies will be cloudier and our weather more murky as the jet stream settles over the region.

The surface high pressure system which brought us sunny skies for the past few days will weaken and slide to our east from tonight into Saturday morning. Therefore, there will be considerable cloudiness later tonight through Friday, but no threat of precipitation. A weak surface low will track to our northwest, through the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. It will drag its warm front through the region on Saturday. There will not be much “forcing” or moisture with this weak system so the warmer air overrunning the colder air at the surface will only generate limited, if any, precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Any light precipitation will be in the form of snow in the morning, with little if any accumulation, and then will transition to sleet, freezing rain and rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Precipitation may remain freezing rain over the elevated terrain Saturday night. Temperatures will be very close to freezing, if not above, so I do not think there will be much in the way of problems with any limited frozen precipitation on Saturday and Saturday evening.

We will briefly be in the “warm sector” of the storm Saturday night and early Sunday but it will not get particularly warm as it will be difficult to scrape away the cold, dense air hugging close to the ground. Still, it will feel downright balmy over the next several days with temperatures reaching the 30s for a good part of Friday through Sunday. The weak surface low will then drag its cold front through on Sunday with only the chance of a few scattered rain showers. It will then turn colder (however, not nearly as cold as it has been), with a return to at least partly sunny skies, on Monday and Tuesday as surface high pressure builds back in as the jet stream shifts just to our south and the associated cold front stalls and becomes stationary. A coastal storm will develop along the front Monday night and Tuesday but should track by well to our south. This will set the stage for what looks to be a stronger, but messy storm on Tuesday night and Wednesday. It still looks like this storm will track by to our northwest, but it will be close. Right now it looks like some accumulating snow Tuesday night, changing to sleet and freezing rain on Wednesday.

Thursday Night

Clear early, then increasing clouds. Not as cold as recent nights

Low temperatures near 10, low teens in South County and upper single digits over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming southwesterly at 8-12 mph after midnight.

Friday

Partly sunny and milder.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to westerly in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow flurry or snow shower toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s.

Winds light and variable.

Saturday

Overcast with the chance of scattered snow flurries or snow showers in the morning, transitioning to the chance of light sleet or freezing rain showers or freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Any precipitation may change to plain rain, particularly in valley locations. Probability of precipitation 40%. Little if any snow and/or ice accumulation.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to southeasterly late.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The surface low pressure system that is generating an unusual winter storm in the deep south and southeast will move out to sea to our south overnight. We will see cloud cover as a result tonight but no precipitation other than the chance of a snow flurry in the southeastern corner of the county. Surface high pressure will then build in for Wednesday and Thursday  to give us a couple of beautiful, sunny winter days with high temperatures moderating from the teens on Wednesday to the 20s on Thursday.

The jet stream is undergoing a pattern shift, from the amplified pattern that has kept a standing wave trough over us for the past two weeks and allowed repeated arctic air incursions, to a more zonal (west to east) orientation. As a result, our temperatures will likely be closer to average for Thursday into early next week.

A weak surface low pressure system will move by just to our north on Saturday and Saturday night. The track of the low should give us a light mixture of precipitation types but not a big storm by any stretch. I will comment more on this as it develops. It looks like we may see a bigger storm mid-week next week. Right now it looks like the track of the surface low should be well to our north and west. If this occurs, we are likely to see mixed precipitation changing to rain.

Tuesday Night

Increasing cloudiness this evening. Mostly cloudy after midnight with the chance of a snow flurry in the southeastern corner of the county. Probability of precipitation there 30%. No accumulation expected. Skies should clear from northwest to southeast toward daybreak.

Remaining very cold, with low temperatures in the low single digits, low to mid single digits in South County and low single digits below zero to near zero over the elevated terrain.

Light south-southwesterly winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny and not quite as cold. It may be partly cloudy for a time late in the day over North County. Becoming breezy in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid to upper teens in Pittsfield; upper teens in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; near 20 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid teens over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear and cold.

Low temperatures in the low single digits, low to mid single digits in South County and low single digits below zero to near zero over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds diminishing from 10-15 mph to 5-10 mph during the evening, then becoming light after midnight.

Thursday

Sunny and not as cold.

High temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 20s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light west-southwesterly winds in the morning, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph n the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The deep trough in the jet stream wave pattern which has been camped out over us for days is beginning to flatten out slightly and is lifting northeast. As a result, tonight and tomorrow will not be nearly as cold as recent days. However, another pool of arctic air is beginning to dive southward out of Canada, into the western side of the trough. This will serve to re-amplify the trough so the “warm up” will be short-lived. The leading edge of this pool of cold arctic air will move into the northeast Saturday night and Sunday will, once again, be quite frigid. The arctic cold front at the leading edge of this cold pool of air will generate a band of fairly vigorous snow showers and, possibly, squalls Saturday afternoon and evening as the denser (heavier) cold air lifts the “milder” air over us. The snow should move in mid to late afternoon and linger into the evening. Accumulations should be relatively light, with most locations receiving 1″ to as much as  2″, with 3″ possible over a few “favored” spots in the elevated terrain. Lower elevations in South County may receive less than 1″. It will turn windy and much colder late Saturday night and Sunday. There may be a few lake effect snow flurries/showers on Sunday with a mixture of sun and clouds.

A weak “Alberta Clipper” type surface low pressure system will swing through the Great Lakes and by to our north on Sunday night and Monday. As its weak warm front swings through Sunday night we may see a few snow showers and then again on Monday as it drags its cold front through. However, I don’t expect much in the way of accumulation from this system. We will be briefly in the “warm sector” (between the warm front and cold front) of this low on Monday so temperatures will be milder, although don’t expect anything more than 20s. After this low passes by it will draw cold arctic air back into the trough behind it and our temperatures will be frigid, once again, for a good part of next week. The long range models suggest that the amplified standing wave in the jet stream pattern will begin to flatten out and become more zonally (west to east) oriented late next week. If this occurs, temperatures should begin to moderate by next weekend. Hopefully, this change in the jet stream will enable storms to dip far enough south to provide precipitation to help alleviate the drought along the west coast as well.

Friday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, but not as cold as recent nights.

Temperatures will only drop a few degrees this evening, with low temperatures in the mid to upper single digits in most locations, near 10 in South County and low to mid single digits over the elevated terrain. Temperatures should rise toward or into the low teens toward morning.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy and breezy. Not as cold as recent days. A band of snow and snow showers will move through the county beginning mid afternoon and continuing through the evening. Probability of precipitation 90%. Most likely total snow accumulations (through the evening) 1-2″ in most locations, with a dusting to 1″ in the lower elevations of South County and as much as 3″ over a few spots in the elevated terrain.

High temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph, diminishing somewhat toward evening.

Saturday Night

Evening snow and snow showers, ending before midnight, then clearing, breezy and much colder after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low single digits, near zero over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero after midnight.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the evening, shifting to west-northwesterly at 10-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Mixed clouds and sun, breezy and very cold. There is the chance of a snow flurry or shower. Probability of precipitation 30%. Nothing more than a dusting of snow in a few spots.

High temperatures near 10 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero early, single digits below zero in the afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph, shifting to west-southwest and diminishing late.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: An arctic airmass has settled over the region and will be with us through Friday. As the coastal storm moved out to sea overnight, clear skies and lightening winds combined with a snow cover enabled air temperatures (not windchill) to plummet, reaching -10°F in Pittsfield, -5 to -10 in most other locations, and -13 on Florida mountain and -30 in parts of the Adirondacks.  Air temperatures this afternoon are in the single digits across the county with wind chill temperatures in the teens to 20s below zero at times. This air mass will begin to moderate and shift to our northeast on Saturday, with temperatures rising into the 20s (woohoo!), only to be replaced by another air mass of arctic origin plunging south into the “standing” wave trough over our region on Sunday behind an arctic cold front. As a result, our temperatures will again be frigid for a good part of next week.

The arctic frontal passage will generate snow showers and squalls on Saturday. The front will be quite strong and, despite the fact that the air in advance of the front will be dry, the lifting motion of the front will squeeze out whatever moisture is available and it is likely that we will see some light accumulation of an inch or two during the day on Saturday as the front passes through. An “Alberta Clipper” surface low pressure system will descend out of Alberta, Canada and rotate through the base of the jet stream wave trough, moving through here on Sunday night with another light snowfall of an inch or two.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear this evening, with increasing, thin high clouds after midnight. It will be brutally cold.

Low temperatures generally -5° to -10°F. Wind chill temperatures in the minus teens to minus 20s at times.

Northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph this evening, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy in the afternoon and remaining very cold. There is the slight chance of a snow flurry in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation expected.

High temperatures near 10 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens to 20s below zero early, single digits below zero in the afternoon

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and extremely cold.

Low temperatures around -5°F, as low as -10°F over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens to 20s below zero.

West-northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph.

Friday

Partly cloudy, breezy and very cold.

High temperatures near 10 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens to 20s below zero early, single digits below zero in the afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, shifting to southwest late.

The very cold and dry air associated with the arctic air mass moving southward is suppressing the attempts of the moisture associated with the storm system to our south from making much northward progress. Therefore, I am decreasing my snow accumulation forecast a bit from yesterday. It looks like there will be a sharp line to the northern extent of the snow shield with those to the north of that line receiving little if any snow. This line will likely set up somewhere between central and northern Berkshire. It still looks like snowfall totals will increase as one moves from northwest to southeast in the county with a dusting at most in Williamstown, to about 0.5″-1″ in Pittsfield,  1″ or so in Lee and 2-3″ in the extreme southeast (e.g. Otis, Sandisfield, New Marlborough). After that the forecast can be summed up with one word….COLD!

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: An arctic front moved through this afternoon with a line of snow squalls. Cold, dense arctic air is sinking southward behind the front. As of 5 pm, temperatures had already fallen into the single digits in central and northern VT and the Adirondacks. This cold, arctic air is descending into the base of the trough in the jet stream wave pattern which has set up shop over the eastern U.S. and will serve to deepen the trough and nudge it somewhat eastward. Meanwhile, a disturbance in the jet stream flow pattern is rotating through the base of this trough and has generated a weak area of surface low pressure over the Midwest and is generating snow showers over Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. This surface low pressure system will intensify as it moves east tonight, reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday (tomorrow). We will be along the northwestern margin of the snow shield associated with this low Tuesday evening. The computer model guidance is still fairly divergent as to where this margin will be. Therefore, even a slight shift will affect accumulation totals. Right now it looks like southeastern portions of the county will receive the most snowfall and northwestern locations the least. I would estimate a dusting to 2″ is most likely in the northwest (e.g. Williamstown) with 1-3″ in most other locations and 2-4″ possible in the southeast (e.g. Otis, Sandisfield). This storm could still be a complete miss (note that I have a 60% chance [likely] of precipitation for tomorrow night) but I think that is unlikely given the trend this winter with these types of storms. I will update this forecast tomorrow afternoon…

Light snow will likely develop around dinner time Tuesday and then taper off after midnight. It will be cold tomorrow but once the storm departs it will become windy and even colder, with dangerous wind chills for the remainder of the work week, right through Friday. There is no end to the cold weather in sight either. Temperatures may moderate a little on Saturday but then take another nose dive on Sunday as another arctic front dives into the trough.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, breezy and turning sharply colder.

Low temperatures in the low single digits, mid single digits in South County and near zero over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, diminishing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

Increasing clouds during the morning, overcast with light snow likely developing towards evening.

High temperatures in the low teens in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid teens in Lee and Stockbridge; mid teens in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper single digits to around 10 over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to northerly in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

Light snow likely, tapering off after midnight. Becoming breezy and very cold, with dangerously low wind chills by morning. Probability of precipitation 60%. Most likely snowfall totals a dusting to 2″ in the northwest (e.g. Williamstown), 1-3″ most other locations, 2-4″ in the southeast (e.g. Otis).

Low temperatures in the low single digits below zero, near zero in South County and mid single digits below zero in the elevated terrain and parts of North County. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero at times by morning.

Northerly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Windy and brutally cold.

High temperatures in the low to mid single digits in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, mid single digits in Lee and Stockbridge; mid to upper single digits in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: near zero to low single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures occasionally in the teens below zero.

Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The weak surface low pressure system moving through tomorrow looks like it may intensify a little more than it appeared yesterday when it hits the coast. Therefore, snowfall totals look to be slightly higher than yesterday’s estimate. By the time the snow winds down during the evening, likely accumulations should be in the 1-3″ range for most areas, with the lesser amounts in that range in the lower elevations of South County and the greater amounts in the higher elevations and in North County. There may even be a few isolated 4″ or 5″ amounts in the elevated terrain to the north and east (e.g. Savoy, Florida, Peru). The models have been trending toward higher amounts of liquid equivalent precipitation with each model run, with this afternoon’s runs suggesting a 2-4″ accumulation, so I would not be surprised to see slightly higher amounts than the forecast 1-3″. However, I am always wary of these rapidly moving, intensifying coastal lows since they frequently scoot just to our east before they can really get going. I will try to update my snowfall estimates after more information becomes available later tonight. In any case, the timing looks like this: Light snow or snow showers will likely develop toward morning with only a dusting or so by daybreak. Snow will then continue off and on for the daylight hours and may be moderate at times. There may be a pause in the snow during the early to mid afternoon. The bulk of the snow will occur during the day with 1-3″ totals by evening. However, it looks like light snow may linger well into the evening so an additional 0.5″ or so could fall before midnight.

Snow showers and flurries are also likely on Sunday with some lake-effect early and then the approaching arctic front late in the day. Snow showers/squalls are still possible on Monday as the front moves through. Additional snowfall totals for Sunday and Monday should be in the dusting to 1″ range although if a line of heavier snow squalls develops on Monday there may be 1-2″ totals in a few spots. After the arctic front passes, temperatures will plummet and may get no higher than the single digits for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The long-range models are suggesting we could get another little coastal low, similar to tomorrow, on Thursday or Friday and then, possibly, a larger storm late in the weekend which will usher in the next arctic air mass. So it looks like our January thaw is finished and that we are returning to winter weather for the foreseeable future….

Friday Night

Increasing cloudiness with light snow or snow showers likely developing by daybreak. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely snowfall totals a dusting.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s.

Calm winds.

Saturday

Intermittent snow. Snow may be moderate at times. There may be a pause in the snowfall during the early to mid afternoon. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely snowfall totals 1-3″ by evening, with the lesser amounts in that range in the lower elevations in South County and the higher amounts in the elevated terrain and in North County. A few spots over the elevated terrain to the north (e.g. Savoy, Florida, Peru) may see as much as 4″ or 5″.

High temperatures in the near 30 in Pittsfield; low 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly late.

Saturday Night

Light snow or snow showers likely until midnight. Breezy. Remaining mostly cloudy after midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. Additional snowfall accumulations of a dusting to 0.5″ possible.

Low temperatures near 20, upper teens over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, with gusts 25-30mph during the evening, diminishing after midnight.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and colder, with snow showers or flurries likely. Probability of precipitation 60%. A dusting is likely in some locations.

High temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 20s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: low 20s over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures occasionally in the teens.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: Not much has changed since yesterday’s post. It still looks like another small shot of snow on Saturday as another weak surface low pressure system forming along the eastern edge of the jet stream trough moves quickly through and out to sea. We will likely get a similar amount of snow to what we received today although we may get a bit more, on the order of 1-2″.

On Sunday, a piece of the arctic air mass sitting over, of all places, the Arctic, will break off and begin its descent into the trough. The arctic front at the leading edge of this airmass will generate snow showers and snow squalls late on Sunday or Sunday night. Another 1″ or so is possible from this event as well. The front will temporarily stall over our region but then begin to slowly sink southward on Monday and Tuesday as the core of that piece of arctic air moves directly over our region. Temperatures will take a corresponding nosedive and we are likely to peak in the teens on Monday and Tuesday and struggle to get out of the single-digits on Wednesday and Thursday.

The long-range models suggest no significant let up from the cold as a reinforcing push of frigid, arctic air sinks into the “standing wave” trough for the following week. With the trough axis just to our west, any storms that form along its eastern margin should remain well out to sea. Therefore, at this time there is no evidence that we will receive any significant snow storms for the foreseeable future.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with the chance of a snow flurry or two. Probability of precipitation 30%. No additional snow accumulation expected.

Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s.

Winds light and variable to calm.

Friday

Mostly cloudy in the morning. Becoming partly cloudy and not as cold in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 8-12 mph.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy.

Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s.

Light south-southwesterly winds in the evening, becoming calm overnight.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with light snow likely. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely accumulations a dusting to 2″. Becoming breezy in the afternoon.

High temperatures near 30 in Pittsfield; low 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and: upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph, with higher gusts in the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: We are likely to get a light coating of snow tomorrow and again on Saturday as we are brushed by weak coastal surface low pressure systems forming along the eastern edge of the trough in the jet stream wave pattern that is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S.. We also will likely get some snow showers/squalls late Sunday or Sunday night as we are brushed by an arctic cold front diving down into the trough. Each of these three events have the potential to leave a dusting to 1″ or so of snow accumulation, although some areas may see little or no snow.

Temperatures will gradually decline through the weekend and next week as the trough essentially becomes a “standing wave” as a series of disturbances in the jet stream flow rotating through the base of the trough act to deepen and re-establish the trough in place. This standing wave pattern is becoming bad news for the western U.S. as, with a trough over the eastern U.S., the other half of the wave is a ridge over the western U.S.. This means the storm track, which follows the jet stream, is way to the north over western Canada. California, including the Sierra Nevada mountains from which snow melt provides much of the drinking water for the northern half of the state, has gotten very little precipitation. With this standing wave remaining in place, which long-range models suggest will be the case for the next few weeks, the drought in California looks to continue. Since their rainy season usually ends by March, they are running out of time to build up the reservoirs before 7 months of dryness (April-October) sets in.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with the chance of snow flurries or wet snow showers. Any snow showers will likely be mixed with rain during the evening in the lower elevations. Probability of precipitation 40%. There may be a dusting of snow in a few locations.

Low temperatures generally in the upper 20s, mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light southerly winds in the evening, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 5-10 mph by midnight.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers and flurries likely. There may even be a period of light snow during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely snowfall accumulations a dusting to 0.5″. There could be up to an inch in a few spots over the elevated terrain.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy and a little colder.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain.

Winds light and variable to calm.

Friday

Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a snow shower or flurry late. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation expected.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.