Note: Underlined red text indicates links to various weather maps.

Summary: Two important developments: 1) Tropical Storm Karen has stalled and is dissipating over the Gulf of Mexico so we will not be receiving any enhanced rainfall due to the moisture from its remnants; 2) The jet stream trough (upper-level cold pool) will not become completely “cut-off” from the jet stream flow so it will progress through New England more rapidly and the cold front at its leading edge will move through late Monday afternoon and evening instead of Tuesday. This will allow surface high pressure to build in behind the front on Tuesday and give us a beautiful sunny, autumn day on Tuesday.

Once again, as has been the pattern this fall, a sprawling ridge in the jet stream wave pattern and its associated broad surface high pressure system appears as if it will stall over the region and give us a prolonged period of fair weather through the remainder of the work week, and probably next weekend as well. One bug in the long-range forecast is that the computer models are generating a weak coastal storm (in response to an upper-level disturbance imbedded in the ridge) later in the week which may move close enough to New England to bring some clouds and possibly even a few showers into Berkshire County on Thursday night into Friday but….that is a long way off and I have my doubts about this scenario.

Until then, the warm front MAY finally move through tonight and Monday and give us a BRIEF period in the “warm sector” of the surface cyclone (low pressure system) moving by to our north in eastern Canada on Monday. This will result in a warm and muggy day on Monday before the surface low drags its strong cold front through with a band of steady rain late Monday afternoon and evening. There may be some pre-frontal showers and even thunderstorms during the afternoon before the frontal band moves through around dinner time. With increasing instability with the heating of the day and developing low-level wind shear the Storm Prediction Center has indicated that there is the slight risk (15% chance) of severe thunderstorms (wind in excess of 55 mph, hail > 1″ OR a tornado) tomorrow. From what I can see now I think that this is unlikely unless we get large amounts of sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere tomorrow. In particular, I think there is virtually no chance of a tornado. Check back tomorrow for an update on this possibility….

Sunday Night

Overcast and damp with patchy fog and scattered drizzle and sprinkles. No significant showers or rainfall is expected.

Temperatures holding steady this evening and then rising gradually after midnight, reaching the low 60s by morning.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, veering to southeasterly and then south-southeasterly by morning.

Monday

Partly sunny, breezy, warm and muggy. There is the chance of a few scattered showers and even a thunderstorm early to mid-afternoon in possible pre-frontal convective bands. A more continuous band of rain and/or thunderstorms will move through, most likely, between 5-8 pm. Rain will be heavy at times. Probability of precipitation 90%. Most likely rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1.00″.

High temperatures in the low 70s in Pittsfield, North Adams, Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 70s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 70 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

South-southeasterly winds increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Monday Night

Rain will end in the early evening followed by clearing skies. It will still be somewhat breezy, particularly over the elevated terrain, and turning much cooler and drier.

Low temperatures in the low 40s, near 40 over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-15 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, breezy and seasonably cool.

High temperatures in the low 60s in Pittsfield, North Adams, Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 60s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 60 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, with gusts over 20 mph, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Tuesday Night

Clear, calm and cold. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny. High temperatures averaging in the mid 60s.