Summary: Unfortunately, despite all of the beautiful weather we had during the work week, although not a total washout, this weekend our string of beautiful clear and sunny days will come to an end.

The cloud cover forecast for Saturday is a very tough call, but I will try to give as much detail into my thought process as I can…… Fog should develop in most locations overnight tonight. Once the fog burns off we will be squeezed between the edge of a low cloud bank to our south and east (due to a minor disturbance now off the mid-Atlantic coast being drawn north over New England by a strong southerly flow) and an approaching strong cold front (presently located over the Great Lakes). It is now starting to look like the cloud cover associated with the cold front should hold off for most of the day. If the disturbance stays to our south and east it could turn out to be a fairly sunny and warm day (once the fog burns off) before the clouds from the approaching cold front arrive by late afternoon/early evening. However, there is a pretty good chance that the low cloud bank associated with the disturbance will move over Berkshire County and gives us a pretty cloudy day. In fact, if this occurs, there is even the chance that we could get a few scattered sprinkles or light showers falling out of those low clouds. Right now, I tend to lean toward the second, cloudier, scenario. I will update this if I can tomorrow morning. In any case, at least temperatures will be relatively mild.

A band of rain associated with the advancing cold front will move through late Saturday night, with the bulk of the rain falling between midnight and early Sunday morning. Although the band is relatively narrow, it is moving slowly and will contain some periods of fairly heavy rain. We should get a pretty good dousing, with likely rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1.00″. Showers may linger into Sunday morning and even after any rain ends, the low clouds should hang tough into the afternoon. We may see some clearing later in the afternoon on Sunday but it will be breezy and much cooler than previous days.

It still looks like another sunny work week as surface high pressure rebuilds over the Northeast. It will be chilly on Monday, despite sunshine, but temperatures will moderate as the week progresses, probably reaching the 70s again by later in the week.

Friday Night

Clear for a good part of the night with fog developing in many locations toward morning. Fog will be thickest in valley locations.

Low temperatures in the low 50s.

Light south-southeasterly winds.

Saturday

Fog likely burning off during the morning, then variable amounts of cloudiness. Although I think more clouds than sun is most likely (see discussion above) it could turn out to be a fairly sunny and warm day if the cloud bank associated with a weak disturbance stays to our south and east. There is the chance of a few sprinkles/light showers during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30%. Any rainfall amounts should be 0.05 inches or less.

It will be relatively mild, although high temperatures will depend heavily on the amount of sunshine. Most likely high temperatures in the low 70s in most locations with some upper 60s over the elevated terrain.

South-southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night

Becoming overcast in the evening with rain developing after midnight and continuing, heavy at times, til morning. A few embedded rumbles of thunder are possible (not likely) but there is no risk for severe thunderstorms. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1.00″.

Low temperatures in the upper 50s in most locations with mid 50s over the elevated terrain.

South-southeasterly at 10-15 mph shifting to westerly as the cold front passes near daybreak.

Sunday

The steady rain should end in the early morning although scattered showers are still possible for most of the morning. A low overcast should linger for a good part of the day although there may be some clearing mid to late afternoon. It will be breezy and much cooler than previous days.

Temperatures will not rise much, peaking near 60 in most locations, mid to upper 50s over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will begin to fall through the 50s later in the afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts, particularly over the elevated terrain.