Summary: The autumn pattern which has developed appears likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The surface high pressure system, which has been dominating our weather all week, will hang on for another 1-2 days. Friday should be much like today, with clear skies and warm temperatures. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday. After any fog burns off it should become mostly sunny and mild, with an increase in clouds during the afternoon. A slow moving band of rain/showers associated with the cold front should arrive sometime Saturday evening and continue for a good part of the night. It still appears that the rain/showers may hang on into Sunday morning and the rest of the day will likely be cloudy and much cooler than in recent days. Although the global U.S. model (GFS) has been persistent in keeping it raining in Berkshire County into early Sunday afternoon, the higher resolution NAM model and the European (ECMWF) model have the rain clearing out by daybreak. The ECMWF model even has skies clearing out on Sunday (Go Europe!!). My gut (experience?) tells me that the showers will probably end early but the low cloud cover will linger. I will update this situation with tomorrow’s forecast. In any case, it should become breezy and much cooler on Sunday. As the cold front finally clears the county, there will likely be a return to fair skies as another surface high pressure system builds in and becomes camped over the region for most, if not all, of next week. Monday will probably be the coolest day of the season so far, despite sunny skies, with temperatures in the 50s. The airmass will modify as the week progresses, with temperatures in the 60s most days, and possibly even into the 70s again by late week.

Thursday Night

Clear and calm with seasonably cool temperatures. Fog may develop in a few locations.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 40s countywide.

Calm winds.

Friday

Sunny and continued unseasonably warm.

It will likely even be a few degrees warmer than Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 70s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and low to mid 70s over the elevated terrain.

Light southerly winds (< 5 mph) increasing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Friday Night

Generally clear. However, fog and some low clouds will likely develop and become fairly widespread after midnight.

It will be milder with low temperatures near 50.

Winds diminishing and becoming calm.

Saturday

Fog and low clouds should burn off during the morning (I hope fairly quickly). It will likely become mostly sunny for a time late morning into early afternoon. Clouds will increase and thicken as the afternoon progresses, becoming overcast by sunset.

High temperatures are a little uncertain because so much depends on how much sunshine any particular location gets. However, with at least some cloud cover in the offing it should be cooler than recent days, although temperatures should remain mild. Most likely, high temperatures will be in the  low 70s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low to mid 70s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and upper 60s to near 70 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns depending on elevation.

Light southerly winds early, increasing to 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night and Sunday

Rain and showers developing during the mid to late evening and continuing through most of the night. Probability of precipitation 80%. Rainfall totals around 0.50″. There is a chance for showers early Sunday and low clouds should linger for a good part of the day. It will become breezy and much cooler, with temperatures topping out around 60 during the morning and then holding steady or even dropping into the 50s as the afternoon progresses.