Student forecasts will begin in mid-October. Until then I (Joe Kravitz) will forecast as frequently as I can, or, as conditions warrant. The software to put these forecasts on the BCC Weather Station page is still not quite ready so, for now, I will post all weather discussions and forecasts on this blog page. I will keep you updated……

Summary: The southernmost extent of the polar front jet stream will lift far to our north, over Canada, over the next few days. This will allow heat and humidity, that will match anything we experienced this summer, to make a brief return to the region. At the surface, a weak low pressure center over the upper midwest will move eastward through the northern Great Lakes overnight tonight, dragging its associated warm front towards us. Clouds will increase after midnight tonight and there is the chance of a few scattered, mostly light, showers as the warm front moves through during the morning hours. However, most of us should remain dry. The threat for a shower will be greatest for the few hours before and after daybreak but there is still a chance of a shower for most of the morning. It should remain fairly cloudy throughout the morning during the frontal passage but significant sunshine should make a return during the afternoon once the front passes.

The change in airmasses as the front passes, from the cool, continental high pressure presently over the region, to the unseasonably warm and humid subtropical airmass behind the front will be profoundly noticeable. Temperatures in the Great Plains and Midwest are presently well above 90 in most locations, with a few readings over 100 in Iowa, with dewpoints over 70 in many locations. As this airmass is propelled over our region on southwesterly winds behind the front our temperatures will approach record levels on Wednesday. However, it will be difficult to match the record of 93 deg. in Pittsfield for Sept. 11, set in 1989. Overnight temperatures on both Tuesday and Wednesday nights will not drop below the mid to upper 60s as dewpoints rise to similar levels. We will finally get some relief from the heat and humidity as a strong cold front moves through with a round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. This frontal passage will usher in more fall-like weather with blustery and much cooler conditions for Friday and the weekend. Daytime temperatures will generally be in the 60s with abundant sunshine. However, we may have trouble climbing out of the 50s in many locations on Saturday.

Monday Night

Mostly clear this evening, with increasing clouds after midnight. There is the chance of a few scattered, mostly light showers toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 20%. Precipitation amounts should be less than 0.05 inches.

Temperatures will fall fairly quickly into the low to mid 50s this evening with generally clear, calm and dry conditions over the county. Once clouds move in after midnight, temperatures will level off and even begin to rise toward 60 by daybreak.

Light (0-5 mph) southerly winds this evening, increasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

Partly sunny (50-75% cloud cover) in the morning with still a slight chance of a shower. Becoming partly cloudy (25-50% cloud cover) during the early afternoon and even mostly sunny (<25% cloud cover) mid to late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 20% in the morning. Precipitation amounts should be less than 0.05 inches. Becoming unseasonably warmer and more humid as the day progresses.

Temperatures should rise slowly into the lower to mid 70s by late morning under a fair amount of cloud cover. However, as skies begin to clear during the afternoon temperatures will rapidly rise to near 80 over the elevated terrain, particularly in North County, low to mid 80s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown and mid 80s in the lower elevations of South County (Great Barrington and Sheffield). Dewpoints will rise steadily throughout the day as the warm front passes, reaching the very uncomfortable mid to upper 60s by days end.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear with some patchy fog toward morning.

Unseasonably warm and muggy with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s countywide.

Southwest winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny in the morning, once any patchy fog burns off. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Unseasonably hot and humid. There is the slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon although the thunderstorm activity should remain to the west of Berkshire County. Probability of precipitation 10-20%.

High temperatures near 90 in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 90s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid to upper 80s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.