Summary: Yesterday’s weather event in Berkshire County was highly elevation dependent, with the elevated terrain/hilltowns getting significant accumulations of heavy, wet snow and the lower elevations/valley locations getting mostly rain after some wet snowfall overnight into the early morning hours. Snowfall totals reported to the National Weather Service in Albany were generally in the 1-3″ range in the lower elevations, with 1″ at Sheffield, 1.2″ in Pittsfield, 1.8″ in Lenox, and 2.5″ in Williamstown. However, the hilltowns were another matter entirely, with Peru reporting 8″ and Savoy 12″. This type of elevation snowfall is typical of the transition seasons, late fall/early winter (November, early December) and late winter/early spring (usually late March into early April) as the higher sun angle raises near surface temperatures considerably during the day (even with cloud cover) so that even though temperatures are cold enough aloft for snowfall, temperatures in the valleys climb well up into the 30s so that the snow changes to rain. It is interesting that we had this event in late February this year and as I look toward the pattern for next week I am reminded that the length of our winter season has been decreasing in recent years (global warming) and late February/early March may be becoming the new mid/late March. In fact, it has been noted by satellite observations that the “greening line” has advanced 2 weeks farther north in the Spring since the 1980s.

As the cold pool aloft (aka upper-level low) that was responsible for generating our “storm” yesterday drifts eastward over us today, it continues to moderate and weaken as it becomes “elongated/stretched-out” zonally (west to east). However, it will drift very slowly offshore over the next few days and weak disturbances rotating around it should keep us under considerable cloud cover (although there will be some sunny breaks…yay high sun-angle) and even give us a few periods of light snow showers (mixed with rain in the lower elevations during the day on Friday). Our temperatures will also stay relatively cool, as we will be under the eastern portion of a large-scale trough (southward dip) in the jet stream which is covering the eastern half of the country. It will take many days for this relatively cool, cloudy weather to clear as the trough slowly, slowly begins to lift out. However, I am seeing indications that a warm ridge in the jet stream will develop in the center of the U.S. mid-week next week and attempt to move east over our region, with an associated surface high pressure system by late week. If this occurs, we could be in for an early taste of spring by late week/early next weekend. Right now it looks like temperatures could reach the 50s with sunny skies, not 60s or 70s but, hey, it is early March and beggars can’t be choosers. Let’s hope that the long-range models are correct. One note, the models are also hinting that the trough will try to deal us a parting blow by developing a coastal low around Wednesday. However, right now it appears that it is likely to pass well to our south and out to sea.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with a good chance of a snow shower, predominantly before midnight. Probability of precipitation 50%. There may be a dusting in a few locations, mostly over the elevated terrain.

A persistent cloud cover will prevent much radiational cooling so temperatures will not fall too much overnight. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 in most locations, mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday

Mostly cloudy in the morning. The cloud cover will likely break up for a time near midday (late morning to early afternoon), becoming partly sunny (50-75% cloud cover), particularly over South County. However, this will destabilize the atmosphere somewhat so there is the chance of a few scattered snow showers or flurries developing, particularly over the Taconics (rain shower or sprinkle in the lower elevations), as it becomes mostly cloudy again mid to late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.

Temperatures will be seasonable, with high temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

It will be a bit breezy with northwest winds at 10-15 mph.

Friday Night

Remaining mostly cloudy. There is still the chance of a snow shower or flurry. Probability of precipitation 40%. The greatest likelihood is, once again over the Taconics (upslope region with a northwest flow). There may be a dusting in a few locations over the elevated terrain.

Temperatures will be a little lower than Thursday night as slightly colder air moves in. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in most locations with some low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Northwest wind at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy to overcast and slightly colder with a good chance of snow showers or flurries, particularly in central and northern Berkshire. Probability of precipitation 50%. A coating of snow is possible in some locations with up to a half inch in a few spots over the higher elevations.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in most locations, some upper 30s in the lower elevations of South County and low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Northwest winds at 5-15 mph.