Summary: The dynamics associated with this weekend’s “storm” (and I use the term loosely) are looking even less impressive today. The upper-level disturbance looks weaker, with less perturbation of the jet stream. This should result in less upward motion in the atmosphere and a weaker surface low pressure system. In addition, with a “flatter” (less amplified) jet stream, the surface low forming off the coast in response to the upper-level disturbance will form farther south and east and progress fairly quickly eastward. Bottom line: if you are a snow lover, this will be a BUST. In fact, with this scenario I would not be surprised if we receive no accumulating snowfall at all in Berkshire County. In addition, as mentioned yesterday, above freezing air will likely also move in aloft, turning any snow to sleet and even freezing rain or rain for a time Saturday evening in South County and, possibly, in central and northern Berkshire as well.
The timeline for this event looks something like this: Only some scattered snow flurries or snow showers into tomorrow afternoon. If any steady light snow develops mid to late in the afternoon it will likely not accumulate with temperatures at or slightly above freezing and a high sun-angle this late in the winter. During the evening hours until sometime near or after midnight there will likely be scattered light precipitation across the County. South County will most likely see light sleet and/or freezing rain or rain with the rest of the county seeing mostly snow with some mixing of sleet and freezing rain possible. I do not expect any signigicant icing as the precipitation should be light and temperatures will be close to freezing. There is a chance that a steadier period of precipitation could develop during this period and give some accumulating snow. As the storm passes well to our east after midnight and toward Sunday morning, any steady precipitation should come to an end. We may receive some snow showers on Sunday due to moisture wrapping around the low and being lifted by the terrain. However, temperatures will be above freezing in most locations and I believe that this will result in nothing more than a dusting in the elevated terrain.
My best estimates for snow accumulation are:
Nothing (zero) to 1-2″ in the lower elevations in the western portions of the county, including all of the large towns. The lowest amounts should be in South County where all snow is less likely and “wintry mix” or rain is more likely. An inch or two of wet snow may fall to the north in Williamstown, Adams and North Adams although I would not be surprised if all of these areas had no accumulation or only a coating. In the elevated terrain to the east 1-3″ could fall, with the highest amounts most likely over the highest terrain in the far eastern regions (e.g. Savoy, Peru). Once again, even these areas may get no accumulation or only a coating.
My gut feeling about this storm is that we will not get much of anything, even though the computer models are still “spitting out” more than measurable amounts of precipitation. If I was making decisions for myself [caveat :-)]I would not cancel any plans because of this “storm”.
Overcast with a chance of a snow flurry or light snow shower toward morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.
With overcast skies, temperatures will not drop much, and low temperatures will be in the upper 20s in most locations with some mid 20s over the elevated terrain.
Light southeasterly winds increasing to 5-10 mph by morning.
Overcast with the chance of a snow flurry or snow shower in the morning. It is possible that a period of steadier light snow or mixed precipitation could develop mid to late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Accumulations most likely nothing to a coating, although as much as 1/2″ is possible over the elevated terrain.
High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in most locations and near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Southeast winds at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly late.
Overcast with intermittent light precipitation. During the evening into the early morning hours a mixture of frozen precipitation types or even rain is most likely in South County with increasing chances of all snow as one moves north within the county. The best chance for all snow is the northeastern elevated terrain. Towards daybreak any precipitation will likely turn to all snow throughout the county. The best chance for steady precipitation is before midnight. Any precipitation should diminish after midnight and end by morning. Probability of precipitation 80%. Any snow accumulation should be light (see summary above). The greatest chance of accumulation (3″ at the most) will be over the elevated terrain to the east.
Temperatures will hold fairly close to freezing in the lower elevations in south and central portions of the county past midnight and then drop into the upper 20s to near 30 by morning. Temperatures will likely be in the upper 20s to near 30 to the north and in the elevated terrain past midnight and then drop into the mid to upper 20s by morning.
Easterly winds at 5-10 mph becoming light northerly by morning.
Mostly cloudy in the morning. It may become partly sunny at times in the afternoon, particularly in South County. There is still a good chance of a few snow showers. Probability of precipitation 50%. Nothing more than a coating, mostly in the elevated terrain, is expected. An area of steadier light “wrap around” snow or snow showers may move from north to south into the county from Vermont later in the afternoon and into the evening.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Light northwest winds in the morning, increasing to 8-12 mph in the afternoon.