Summary: The cold front is presently (2 pm) located along the eastern margin of the Catskills and Adirondacks, just to the west of Albany. Under sunny skies in advance of the front it has become quite spring-like, with temperatures rising well into the 40s in Berkshire County and even over 50 in Great Barrington (51 deg.). A very weak ripple of surface low pressure has developed along the front, to our southwest, over West Virgina, this afternoon and is associated with an area of light mixed precipitation. This low will move northeast along the front and weaken further this afternoon and this evening. It seems unlikely that we would get anything but rain from this low, with our temperatures this afternoon around 50 degrees. However, after the cold front passes later this afternoon our temperatures will drop rapidly and as the low moves along the front to our south we will likely get a period of light snow overnight. Accumulations should be light, on the order of an inch or two, with as much as three inches in a few spots over the higher terrain to the east, especially the southeast (e.g. Otis, Becket).
As mentioned in yesterday’s post, once the cold front has passed well to our east and off the coast, and the cold trough in the atmosphere begins to make its way east behind the front on Saturday, a more vigorous upper-level disturbance will rotate around the base of the trough and generate much more vigorous ascent in the atmosphere along the front off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in explosive development of a storm (represented by surface low pressure) off the coast Saturday night and Sunday as the storm makes its way to the Canadian Maritime. The scenario has not changed much from yesterday. The storm track appears to be ever so slightly to the east of its projected path yesterday. It still looks like Berkshire County will be on the western margin of the storm’s precipitation shield with a period of light snow a good bet overnight Saturday. It only looks like an inch or so for western parts of Berkshire County with more like two inches for eastern portions. I think it is unlikely that we will receive any more accumulation than that, even if the storm tracks further west than it is now projected. It is still possible that we will receive no snow at all, if the track is even slightly east of where it is now projected. It appears likely that eastern New England, particularly coastal regions, will get significant accumulations, upwards of 6 inches in some locations, such as RI and southeast MA.
As the storm deepens and moves into the Canadian Maritime on Sunday, it will drive strong, cold winds into Berkshire County (see yesterday for a more “scientific” explanation). As a result, Sunday will be an unpleasant day to be outside, with temperatures holding in the teens at best and gusty northwest winds at 15-25 mph. Wind chills will be near zero during the day and may drop to -10 to -20 Sunday night. The arctic airmass will be short-lived, however, and lift out quickly during the early week, with temperatures rising back into the 20s on Monday and 30s on Tuesday. It looks like the surface low pressure system headed our way for Tuesday will pass well to our northwest, so we should only get a little light snow or mixed snow and rain, as the low’s associated warm front and then cold front pass through.
Friday Night
Becoming overcast during the evening with a period of light snow developing around midnight and ending by morning. Probability of precipitation 80%. 1-2″ of accumulation is likely for most parts of the county. Some locations may receive less than an inch and the elevated terrain to the southeast (e.g. Otis, Becket) may receive up to 3″.
Low temperatures in the mid 20s in most locations, low 20s over the elevated terrain.
Light northwesterly winds increasing to 5-10 mph by morning.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy and colder.
High temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 in Pittsfield, near 30 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, lower 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night
Light snow is likely. Probability of precipitation 60%. Most likely accumulations are only around 1″ in the western half of the county and 2″ in the eastern half. There is a significant possibility that there will be no accumulation.
It will become much colder with low temperatures in the low to mid teens in most locations, near 10 over the elevated terrain.
North-northwest winds at 10-15 mph in the evening, increasing to 15-20 mph after midnight.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, windy and very cold. There is the chance of an afternoon snow flurry or snow shower. Probability of precipitation 40%. Nothing more than a dusting is expected.
Temperatures will rise very little as the cold, arctic airmass moves in. Expect high temperatures in the mid teens in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper teens in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low teens over the elevated terrain and hilltowns, it might not rise above 10 in some of the higher elevations. Wind chill temperatures should hover near zero.
Northwest winds at 15-25 mph, with the strongest winds in the elevated terrain. There will be some gusts approaching 40 mph, over 40 in the elevated terrain, particularly during the afternoon.