Summary: Our weather should remain relatively quiet for the next several days as the jet stream pattern is rather weak, disorganized and zonally (west to east) oriented. As a result, surface systems will remain relatively weak.

Lots of low level moisture streaming off the Great Lakes kept us rather overcast today and these low clouds should persist overnight, which will keep temperatures relatively mild for this time of year. There is only the outside shot at a lake-effect snow flurry. We will finally see some sunshine tomorrow (its been a few days) as very weak surface high pressure builds in.

A weak low pressure system will move by to our south and rapidly off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. This weak storm (I suspect the Weather Channel will give it a name anyway) will drop several inches of snow (some locations could get as much as 4-6 inches) in parts of the Mid-Atlantic (Maryland, Delaware, Southern New Jersey) as well as eastern Long Island and southeast New England. This storm will essentially miss us and only give us some cloudiness overnight Wednesday. There is a chance that the southernmost parts of the county could see a brief period of snow around midnight, as the northern fringe of the precipitation shield skirts by to the south, but I do not expect any accumulation.

As the storm departs on Thursday, weak high pressure will again build in and give us plenty of sunshine and temperatures will approach, and could even surpass 40 degrees in some parts of the county (do I hear songbirds singing? No, forget that darn groundhog). It still appears that much colder air will move in for the weekend as the jet stream pattern becomes more amplified and a cold trough digs over the region, ushered in by the passage of a cold front on Friday. It should remain relatively dry, however. A storm (surface low pressure system) will develop along the eastern margin of this trough on Sunday but it will be WELL out to sea and will not impact us (maybe the Weather Channel will name it anyway……they are already up to “P”, wonder what they’ll do when they run out of letters, they are naming every surface low pressure system so they are handing out about 3 names/week).

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy (75-95% cloud cover). There will be occasional breaks in the cloud cover but the low clouds will be pretty persistent. There is the slight chance of a lake-effect snow flurry. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation.

Temperatures will not fall much with the persistent cloud cover and will remain relatively mild for mid-February. Low temperatures in the mid 20s in most locations, with some upper 20s in South County and low 20s in a few spots over the elevated terrain.

West-northwest winds at 10-15 mph this evening will begin to decrease after midnight, decreasing to 5-10 mph by morning.

Wednesday

It will average out partly cloudy (25-50% cloud cover) with seasonable temperatures and light winds. It should start out mostly cloudy everywhere except South County but become partly cloudy everywhere by mid to late morning. There may be an increase in high clouds late in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns (depending on elevation).

West-northwest winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Increasing clouds in the evening. Becoming overcast by midnight. Breaks in the overcast may persist over North County. There is the chance of a brief period of snow in southernmost portions of the county near midnight. Probability of precipitation 30% in those locations. No accumulation expected. There will be partial clearing after midnight as the storm to our south moves rapidly out to sea.

Cloud cover will again prevent temperatures from dropping too much, but some clearing after midnight will permit temperatures to drop a few degrees lower than Tuesday night. Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations, mid 20s in South County, upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light (0-5 mph) northerly winds in the evening shifting to northwest after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly sunny (5-25% cloud cover) to partly cloudy (25-50% cloud cover) for most of the day. There may be an increase in clouds late in the afternoon. Winds will be light and temperatures will be above average.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, lower 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light northwest winds early, shifting to westerly and then southwesterly.