Summary: Its pretty much just watch and wait at this point……

I have increased my estimated snowfall totals somewhat as the trend in the track of the coastal surface low in the models is a little closer to the coast than it looked yesterday. It now appears that the low will be centered right over Cape Cod early Saturday morning which is an ideal location for us to receive heavy snowfall.

Most of the county should receive in the 12-18″ range by the time the storm winds down Saturday morning. There will be a bit of a southeast to northwest bias with this storm so that northwestern parts of the county are more likely to get the lower amounts within that range and southeastern portions in the higher end of that range. However, as with all of these rapidly developing coastal storms, there will likely be great variability in the intensity of the snow between locations as there is frequently “banding” in the precipitation shield. Therefore, it is still possible that Williamstown could get 18″ while Great Barrington gets 12″. The elevated terrain and hilltowns to the east will likely get 18-24″ and a few favored east facing slopes could receive more than 2 feet.

The timeline for the storm looks similar to yesterday except it now appears that things will progress a little more slowly….

Intermittent light snow or snow showers should develop in the early morning hours, near daybreak, with the snow remaining light and intermittent throughout the morning. Accumulations should not be more than 1-2″ by noon. The snow will become steadier and more moderate during the afternoon, and even heavy at times late. Accumulations will likely be in the 3-6″ range by 6 or 7 pm. A gravity wave may develop tomorrow afternoon as the coastal low develops rapidly. This would result in a burst of heavy snow followed by a few hours of very light snow but these features are not forecast by the models so we will just have to watch the radar tomorrow to see if that occurs. If so, snowfall totals will be less than 3-6″ by evening. The snow will likely become quite heavy as the evening progresses and continue heavy at times past midnight. Depending on where the heavy precipitation bands set up snowfall rates could be as much as 1-3″ per hour at times. Winds will also be brisk out of the north-northeast so visibility will become quite poor and temperatures will begin to drop, with very low wind chill temperatures. Conditions could even meet “blizzard” criteria at times (visibility less than 1/4 mile with wind gusts to 35 mph and temperatures in the teens or below), particularly over the elevated terrain. Travel will likely become quite dangerous and is not advisable unless absolutely necessary. The snow will decrease in intensity toward morning but will remain steady until it winds down sometime during Saturday morning. It will remain windy and quite cold on Saturday, with snow continuing in eastern New England.

I plan to update this forecast again tomorrow afternoon. I may add a brief update late tonight if I see any significant changes as new information comes in…..

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy. Becoming overcast toward morning with a good chance of a little light snow or a snow shower developing near daybreak. Probability of precipitation 50%. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph by morning.

Friday

Intermittent light snow in the morning, becoming steadier and more moderate during the afternoon. Snow may become heavy at times toward evening. If a gravity wave develops, there could be a pause in the precipitation for a few hours. Probability of precipitation 100%. Accumulations no more than 1-2″ by noon, around 3-6″ by evening.

High temperatures should occur in the early afternoon, rising into the mid 20s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 20s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and near 20 to low 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns. Temperatures will begin to drop in the afternoon as the steady snow develops, dropping into the upper teens in most locations, except low to mid teens in the elevated terrain and low 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield by dark. Wind chill temperatures falling into the single digits, to near zero later in the afternoon.

Northeast winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, increasing to 15-20 mph, 20-25 over the elevated terrain during the afternoon. Gusts over 30 mph are likely.

Friday Night

Snow, heavy at times. Windy and quite cold. Blizzard conditions at times, with markedly reduced visibility and dangerous travel conditions, particularly over the elevated terrain. Snowfall rates in some locations 1-3″ per hour at times. Snowfall rates will likely peak during the late evening and early morning hours and then diminish toward morning. Probability of precipitation 100%.

Temperatures will fall to near 10 by morning, single digits in the elevated terrain. Windchill temperatures in the single digits below zero.

Northeasterly winds in the early evening shifting to northerly in the late evening and then north-northwesterly by morning. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph, 20-25 mph over the elevated terrain with wind gusts 30-40 mph.

Saturday

Steady snow likely ending by noon, remaining mostly cloudy with snow showers during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 80%. Storm snowfall totals as in the “summary” above. Windy and cold.

Temperatures will not rise much, only reaching the mid teens in most locations, low teens over the elevated terrain. Windchill temperatures in the single digits below zero at times.

North-northwesterly winds becoming northwesterly in the afternoon at 15-20 mph, 20-25 mph over the elevated terrain, with gusts 30-40 mph.