I apologize for no forecast yesterday. Mondays are difficult as I teach all day and have a lab that runs til late afternoon. I may switch to making my forecasts on Tues, Thurs and Sun….I will let you know.

Summary: We will have a brief warmup through tomorrow and then we will return to seasonable temperatures….

Our amplified jet stream wave pattern is propagating eastward with the warm ridge (jet stream lifted well to our north….think of a mountain “ridge”) peaking over us late tonight and the cold trough (southward dip in the jet stream) which gave the Rockies a pretty good snowstorm yesterday approaching us on Wednesday. Under the ridge, it will be unseasonably warm tonight and Wednesday. The leading edge of the trough will move through as a strong cold front on Wednesday night, giving us a fairly prolonged bout of moderate to heavy rain. Berkshire County will likely see between 0.75″ and 1.25″ of rain with this frontal passage. Combined with melting of the wet snow/ice pack on the ground there could be some minor street and basement flooding.

As the jet stream lifts to our north late this afternoon and this evening a disturbance within the jet stream will give us a short bout of moderate rain showers this evening. Those showers are presently over western New York and into Ontario. It will remain well above freezing tonight. On Wednesday, despite overcast skies, we will likely reach 50 degrees as the dewpoints rise into the mid to upper 40s. Once the cold front passes it will turn windy and much colder on Thursday.

Tuesday Night

Overcast with occasional rain showers this evening, moderate at times, ending by midnight. Spotty drizzle with patchy fog forming after midnight. There could be a few isolated pockets of freezing rain early over the higher elevations. However, temperatures will be very close to freezing so I do not expect any significant problems. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Rainfall totals around 0.25″.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in most locations this evening will begin to rise after midnight and will likely reach the low 40s by morning. Over the elevated terrain, temperatures will be in the low 30s this evening, rising to the upper 30s by morning.

Southeast winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to southerly after midnight.

Wednesday

Patch fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies and unseasonably warm. Showers likely developing during the late afternoon hours. Probability of precipitation rising to 70% by dark. Rainfall totals between 0.10″ and 0.20″.

High temperatures near 50 in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid to upper 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Southerly winds increasing to 10-15 mph during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Rain, moderate to heavy at times, ending between 3 and 7 am. Probability of precipitation 100%. Rainfall totals between 0.75″ and 1.25″.

Temperatures will hold steady, near 50, until the cold front passes shortly after midnight, then temperatures will drop through the 40s, reaching the mid to upper 30s by morning, low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds increasing to 15-20 mph in the evening, 20-25 over the higher terrain, with gusts in the 30s. Winds will shift to southwesterly after midnight and westerly by morning.

Thursday

Partly cloudy, windy, and much colder. There is the slight chance of a snow shower in the morning. Probability of precipitation is 20%. No accumulation expected.

Temperatures will hold steady in the 30s in the morning and then fall during the afternoon. By nightfall, temperatures will fall to the upper 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 30 in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Westerly winds will peak in the late morning to early afternoon at 20-25 mph in lower elevations and 25-30 over the elevated terrain. There will be gusts to 40 mph. Winds will diminish later in the afternoon.