I plan to post forecasts on Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoons this semester, the same as when student forecasts are being posted in the Introduction to Meteorology course each autumn. However, when active weather is occurring I will post updates on other days. For this reason, I am posting a forecast for Monday since it appears Berkshire County will be receiving frozen precipitation….
Overrunning moisture associated with a warm front is generating a large band of precipitation over the upper Midwest this afternoon. This precipitation should reach us mid-morning tomorrow. Right now the time frame appears to be as follows: A burst of moderate to heavy snow should begin Monday morning around 9 or 10 am. The snow should continue off and on, until mid-afternoon. After the initial burst, the snow should be mostly light to moderate, although an occasional heavy burst could occur. Snowfall totals should be generally in the 1-3″ range with the heaviest amounts over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will be in the teens when the snow begins and should remain in the 20s during the afternoon. The ground is very cold from our recent cold spell so snow should easily accumulate on both grassy surfaces and paved surfaces. I suspect with road treatments the main thoroughfares will just become wet during the afternoon but snow could reaccumulate with any heavier bursts of snow. The snow should change to sleet (ice pellets) during the mid-afternoon, say around 3 pm or so. Sleet will likely continue off and on into the early evening, and possibly end as some freezing rain between 5 and 7 pm. Additional sleet accumulations of around 1/2″ are possible. During the evening, til around midnight, some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is likely. I am not concerned that this freezing rain/drizzle will cause an icy glaze, as sometimes occurs when the freezing rain occurs suddenly before any other precipitation can impact the roads, because there will already be slush and salt on the roads from the earlier snow and sleet.
Roads should be most treacherous late morning when the snow is falling and temperatures are coldest. Travel could be a little treacherous during the evening commute with some sleet falling and a little slush on the roads. However, it should not be too bad as the precipitation will likely not be too heavy and most roads will have been plowed/salted by that point.
I will try to update this forecast later tonight or tomorrow early am after the evening computer model results are in and the radar can detect the precipitation shield as it approaches us….