Summary: It looks like our early January thaw is coming to an end. The polar front has moved through and is now stalled to our south in a southwest to northeast orientation. A surface low pressure system has developed along the front and is moving northeast toward our region. From last week til a few days ago it looked like this storm would pass well to our south. However, I have noticed that the computer models in the past year or two have had a southern bias to the storm tracks initially, with the track shifting north over time. I believe this is due to the recent warming of our climate system which is not ingrained into the model’s parameterization (approximation) schemes yet.
In any case, it now looks like we will get a bit of a snow “storm” late tonight and tomorrow. The snow should spread over the county from south to north around 4 or 5 am. There will likely be 1-2″ accumulation by 7 or 8 am. The snow will continue off and on for most of the day. It will be mostly light but there are likely to be a few moderate bursts in some areas. The snow should end around nightfall. Total accumulations should be in the 3-6″ range in most locations. However, as per usual, there may be totals in the hilltowns, particularly to the southeast that could reach 7 or 8″. The precipitation should remain snow for the vast majority of the county. There is a slight chance that some sleet or freezing rain could mix in during the day tomorrow in the southernmost parts of the county (i.e. from Sheffield south).
It will then turn seasonably cold but quiet, with nothing more than a few lake effect snow showers for Thursday and Friday. It will be a bit milder on Saturday and early Sunday (highs in the 30s on Saturday) before an Alberta Clipper scoots by to our north on Sunday and drags an arctic cold front through. This may lead to some arctic cold early next week.
Clouds lowering and thickening with snow developing from south to north in the early morning hours, around 4 or 5 am. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Snowfall accumulations an inch or two by the morning commute.
Low temperatures in the mid 20s for most locations, with low 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Light northwesterly winds shifting to easterly after midnight.
Occasional light snow, with a few moderate bursts in places, ending by nightfall. Probability of precipitation 100%. An additional snowfall accumulation of 2-4″ is likely. Total snowfall accumulations of 3-6″, with the least in the valleys, particularly to the south, where temperatures will be milder, and the most in the higher terrain. There could be some isolated 7 or 8″ totals in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
High temperatures should be in the upper 20s in Pittsfield, near 30 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Light east-northeasterly winds.
Overcast in the evening with partial clearing after midnight. There is the slight chance of a lake-effect snow shower or flurry toward morning. Probability of precipitation 20%.
Temperatures will not drop much with significant cloud cover and a west-southwesterly breeze. Low temperatures should be in the mid 20s in most locations, mid to upper 20s to the south, and low 20s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, shifting to westerly and increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
Variably cloudy (will average out partly to mostly cloudy), and seasonably cold with a cold west-northwesterly breeze. There is the slight chance of a lake-effect snow shower or flurry in the morning. Probability of precipitation 20%.
High temperatures near 30 in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Westerly winds in the morning shifting to northwesterly in the afternoon. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with 15-20 mph over the elevated terrain.