Summary: A weak cold front moved through this afternoon accompanied by overcast skies but nothing more than a few sprinkles of rain. A surface high pressure system will build in behind the front and give us clearing skies tonight and a mostly sunny day tomorrow. However, the airmass associated with this system is actually of subtropical origin so temperatures will remain above normal tomorrow, although a stiff northwesterly breeze will make it feel colder.

The jet stream wave pattern will become more amplified over the next few days with a trough of cold arctic air digging southward over the western U.S. and a warm ridge of subtropical air building north over the eastern U.S. The southern dip in the jet stream will pick-up a weakening cut-off low pressure system, presently meandering over Texas, and lift it through the center of the country and into the Great Lakes region by Friday. As the subtropical surface high pressure system moves to our east Thursday night, the southerly flow on its western side (clockwise flow around high pressure) will push the warm front extending eastward from the dissipating cut-off low through our region. This frontal passage will be accompanied by some scattered rain showers, but nothing too significant. Believe it or not, this will allow even warmer air to flood into the region over the weekend. We could even see 50 degrees at some point. The record high temperature for Pittsfield is 57 for both weekend days but I think, at this point, that those records are fairly safe.

The entire jet stream wave pattern will progress slowly eastward and the eastern edge of the cold trough (polar front) may finally move through our region as a cold front on Monday. This will allow more seasonable temperatures to move back in. The long-range models are suggesting that a weak surface low could form along the polar front to our south on Wednesday. It is still very early to evaluate this situation, however, right now it looks like the jet stream will have flattened out considerably by then so the low should be weak and progress rapidly eastward.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear and becoming breezy.

Despite the colder air moving in and clear skies, the strong breeze will not permit much radiational cooling. Low temperatures will likely bottom out in the mid to upper 20s in most locations with low to mid 20s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds shifting to the west-northwest in the evening and increasing to 15-20 mph by midnight, 20-25 mph over the elevated terrain. Some gusts to 30-35 mph are likely. Winds will begin to diminish a little by daybreak.

Thursday

Mostly sunny. Temperatures will be slightly above normal, however, a stiff northwest breeze will make it feel much colder than the thermometer reading.

High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northwest winds at 10-15 mph, 15-20 mph over the elevated terrain will become light late.

Thursday Night

Clear, calm and seasonably cold, with some increase in clouds toward daybreak.

It should be a good radiational cooling night with clear skies, calm winds and a snow cover. Expect temperatures to drop into the teens throughout the county with mid to upper teens in the elevated terrain and low teens in the valleys.

Calm winds.

Friday

Increasing and thickening clouds in the morning. Overcast with a good chance of a few scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 50%. Rainfall totals should be less than 0.10 inches.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.