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Berkshire County Forecast-Tuesday, December 18

Posted by: | December 18, 2012 | No Comment |

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: There is little change from yesterday’s forecast. The cold pool aloft (upper-level low pressure), which helped generate the surface low that gave us almost one inch of rainfall overnight, and its associated instability showers (cold aloft, warmer at the surface) are presently moving through central NY state. These showers will loose some of their energy as they rotate through Berkshire County after the “sun” sets. However, most of the county will see some snow showers and/or flurries through the evening and into the early morning hours. The ground is still warm and wet and surface temperatures will be above freezing so not much snow accumulation is expected. In fact, lower elevations will likely see just rain showers at first until the air below cloud level cools enough (evaporation of falling precipitation) to prevent melting of the falling snow. Many places will see a dusting overnight to perhaps 1/2″. The higher elevations could see an inch or two in some locations.

It will turn blustery and colder overnight and through the day on Wednesday, although it will only be “seasonably” cold. There may be a few lingering flurries Wednesday morning. It will be mostly cloudy (predominantly low clouds) for most of the day Wednesday, a typical December day for Berkshire County, as low-level moisture from the Great Lakes (“lake-effect”, as cold air blows over the warmer lakes) is lifted by the Taconic and Hoosac Ranges. It will clear overnight Wednesday as surface high pressure builds in and we will have one nice day on Thursday before a surface low once again tracks to our northwest, bringing us about 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rainfall Thursday night and Friday morning. The passage of the cold front associated with this low will open the door to much colder air over the weekend. There is still some hope for a white Christmas as it appears that the low pressure system may cut-off from the jet stream and stall over the Canadian Maritime region. This will give us a strong, cold northwest flow of air and this will likely generate considerable lake-effect snowfall. Most of the accumulating snow will fall over upstate NY but, as the last stop on the lake-effect train, we could get a few inches as well.

Tuesday Night

Overcast with snow showers and flurries likely this evening into the early morning hours. The precipitation will likely start as rain showers in the lower elevations but be snow everywhere by midnight. Probability of precipitation 70%. Accumulations generally a dusting, to up to 1/2″ in the lower elevations. There could be an inch or even two in some locations over the elevated terrain. It will turn blustery and colder.

Temperatures falling to near 30 by morning, mid to upper 20s in the elevated terrain.

West-northwest winds at 10-15 mph, 15-20 mph over the elevated terrain with gusts between 25 and 30 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cold. There is the chance of lingering snow flurries in the morning.

High temperatures mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northwest winds at 10-20 mph, 15-25 mph over the elevated terrain, with gusts to near 30 mph.

Wednesday Night

Clearing skies with diminishing winds and seasonably cold temperatures.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s in the lower elevations with low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Northwest winds at 10-15 mph early, becoming light after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing high clouds in the afternoon will dim the sun at times.

High temperatures near 40 in Pittsfield, near 40 to low 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid to upper 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds light and variable.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

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