The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course. There is no student forecast today. In fact, the semester has ended so there will be no more student forecasts until I teach the course again next autumn. I will try to post forecasts on my own as many days as possible in the coming months…
Summary: A surface low pressure system, presently located over the Ohio Valley will track northeast to western NY overnight tonight and then redevelop off the New England coast tomorrow before moving rapidly out to sea. As the low tracks to western NY, the counterclockwise flow around the low will force the front, presently stalled over our region, off to our north as a warm front tonight. This will cause temperatures to rise to well above freezing both aloft and at the surface so that any precipitation we receive will be rain. Rain should begin just after midnight and will be moderate at times as it continues into Tuesday morning. Although Berkshire County will receive substantial rainfall from this system, it does not look as robust as it did previously. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range. A possible “backlash” of snowfall for the county as cold air moves in behind the departing storm now appears less likely as the storm will be moving east fairly rapidly. We should still get scattered lake enhanced snow flurries and showers Tuesday night but I do not expect any significant accumulations.
It will turn blustery and “cooler” on Wednesday but temperatures will still be slightly above average. We will get some clearing on Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday morning as surface high pressure builds in briefly before our next rainstorm on Thursday night as a surface low and its associated cold front move through. This will set the stage for a colder weekend. Our only hope for a white Christmas now seems to be possible lake-effect snow showers over the weekend.
Monday Night
Overcast with rain developing just after midnight. Rain will fall moderately at times. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Rainfall totals between 0.25″ and 0.50″.
Temperatures will rise slowly, to near 40 in most locations, mid to upper 30s in the elevated terrain, by morning.
Light northeast winds this evening, shifting to easterly and increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.
Tuesday
Occasional rain and showers early, ending mid morning. Probability of precipitation 80%. Rainfall totals 0.10″ to 0.25″. It will remain mostly cloudy in the afternoon with just a slight chance of a stray shower.
It will be unseasonably mild with high temperatures in mid 40s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Easterly winds at 8-12 mph early, will become light and variable midday, and then shift to west-northwesterly at 5-10 mph later in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, becoming breezy and colder. Scattered snow showers and flurries are likely, particularly during the evening. Probability of precipitation 60%. Snow should accumulate no more than a dusting in most locations although there may be an inch or so in isolated areas of the higher terrain.
Low temperatures near 30 in the lower elevations with mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Northwest winds increasing to 10-20 mph, 15-25 mph over the elevated terrain. Gusts to 30 mph are likely, particularly in the elevated terrain.
Wednesday
There will be variable amounts of predominantly low clouds, although there should be more clouds than sun. There is still the chance of a few scattered snow flurries. It will be breezy and feel colder, but temperatures will remain above average for mid-December.
High temperatures near 40 in Pittsfield, near 40 to low 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid to upper 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph.