The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, there is no student forecast today:
Summary: Weather systems remain weak as the jet stream pattern across most of the country continues to be quite flat/zonally (E-W) oriented (a non-amplified wave pattern). The cold front that passed through and stalled just to our south last night will move slowly back to the north and through the region tonight and Saturday. Presently, a relatively thin band of light snow and snow showers is developing along this front to our west and south across the lower tier of New York State and Connecticut. The northern margin of this band is just about to enter the southern edge of Berkshire County as this forecast is being written (1:30 pm). This band of snow will move through the county from south to north over the course of this afternoon and this evening. The precipitation is light and the band is thin (narrow N-S extent) so even though it is moving slowly from south to north, it will probably not generate much accumulation, perhaps an inch or less, although there may be 2″ in some locations, particularly over elevated terrain. The band will tend to weaken and become more “broken” as it moves through our region and we should only be left with some scattered snow showers and flurries after midnight tonight and into tomorrow. Scattered snow showers may end as a few light rain showers Saturday evening. Any precipitation during the day on Saturday should be quite light but there may be a little sleet and freezing rain in some locations as the precipitation transitions from snow to rain on Saturday afternoon and evening. The roads could get a little slippery over the higher terrain during this period as temperatures struggle to reach the freezing mark. However, the roads should remain just wet throughout most of the county as the ground and roads are still relatively warm since it is still early in the “winter” season and air temperatures will be above freezing in most locations.
This warm frontal passage will usher in some unseasonably mild weather for Sunday and into the early work week as daytime temperatures reach into the 50s in most locations in the county. A few rain showers are likely late Sunday afternoon and evening as a very weak cold front wanders through. However, this front is so weak that it will essentially dissipate as it moves through and our temperatures will actually be slightly milder on Monday than Sunday.
Friday Afternoon and Night
Overcast with a period of light snow and snow showers this afternoon and this evening, progressing from south to north through the county during the period. The steady period of light snow and snow showers should end by midnight with only the chance of a few scattered flurries or snow showers in the early morning hours. Total accumulations should be about one inch or less in most of the county with some two inch totals in some locations over elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 80%, diminishing to 50% after midnight.
Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations overnight. There may be a few upper teens over the elevated terrain.
East-northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
It will be an overcast and cold day. There is a good chance of scattered snow flurries and showers in the morning. During the afternoon, a mix of frozen precipitation is possible in some locations as we transition from snow to rain as the warm front moves through. However, any precipitation will remain light and scattered. Little or no snow or ice accumulation. Probability of precipitation 50% in the morning, decreasing to 30% during the afternoon.
High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s to low 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.
East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Remaining overcast with the slight chance of a few scattered rain showers during the evening. Probability of precipitation 20% before midnight.
Temperatures will actually rise a few degrees overnight with the warm front passage. By morning, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown and in the upper 30s to near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield. Temperature over elevated terrain should be similar as the warmer air is moving in aloft so will affect higher elevations as well.
Southeast winds shifting to south by morning at 8-12 mph.
Partly sunny to mostly cloudy during the morning into early afternoon, becoming overcast late in the afternoon with the chance of a rain shower. Probability of precipitation 40%. It will be breezy and much milder.
High temperatures in the low 50s in Pittsfield, low to mid 50s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and near 50 to low 50s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Southerly winds at 15-20 mph